![]() Galston, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution’s Governance Studies program, told VOA that of all the factors affecting November election expectations right now, “The most important was the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. In the aftermath of the rulings, multiple states across the country have instituted total and near-total bans on the procedure, with others expected to take similar action in the future. The decision was highly controversial - a large majority of Americans support some form of abortion rights - and was handed down by a court that is currently dominated by six conservative justices, all of whom were appointed by Republican presidents. Wade, the nearly 50-year-old ruling protecting a woman’s right to an abortion, appears to have energized Democrat-leaning voters and could motivate other voters to support Democrats over Republicans in upcoming elections. The decision by the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. One of the most significant factors at play in the midterm elections has nothing to do with the president or Congress. “We have to earn every single seat in the House and the Senate to take it back.” “I’ve been saying forever that I hate the phrase ‘red wave,’” she said. In a recent Fox News interview, Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel downplayed talk of a “red wave” that would sweep Republicans into power in November. “In the Senate, a couple of months ago, I thought it was really close, but that it would break toward the Republicans. “In the House, I still think the Republicans are in good shape,” he said. “It looks a little bit better for them than it did.” “It's been a decent summer for the Democrats,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told VOA. “That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall,” the Cook Political Report wrote last week, after a Democratic candidate unexpectedly won a House race in New York’s 19th Congressional District. Among them are a controversial Supreme Court ruling on abortion rights, a string of legislative and policy accomplishments, unexpectedly poor showings by some key Republican nominees and a decline in gasoline prices from high levels earlier in the year.ĭemocrats have even notched successes in special elections in recent months, including some in districts where Republicans were expected to perform well, leading experts to wonder if those elections presage a weaker-than-expected performance by Republican candidates in November. However, a number of factors - some completely out of the Democrats’ control - have combined to boost the party’s public support, raise Biden’s abysmal poll numbers and create a sense of momentum for the party that was absent during much of the past year. And Biden’s low job approval ratings in public opinion polls remain a drag on his party, though the approval numbers have ticked up in recent weeks. On top of that, the country is still adjusting to high price inflation, which has driven the cost of living up for most Americans. The net loss of even one seat in the 50-50 Senate would flip it to Republican control, and in the House, the Democrats’ current nine-vote majority could easily disappear. Historically, the party of the sitting president tends to lose seats in Congress during midterms. To be clear, the odds are still in favor of Republicans taking over at least part of the federal legislative apparatus after the elections in November. Now, though, it’s beginning to look like President Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats may have at least a chance to buck history and extend their control of the federal government for another two years. election history suggested that in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans were likely to take over the House, the Senate, or both. When Democrats took over the presidency and scored razor-thin majorities in both houses of Congress in 2021, the general expectation was that their hold on Washington’s levers of power came with an expiration date.Ĭonventional wisdom and U.S.
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